The negative impact of PPM on listening estimates has curiously been ignored by the industry. Perhaps the recession provided the cover needed to roll out considerably lower estimates. In any case, there has been nary a public whimper from most stations trying to sell smaller numbers (with the exception of some ethnic station operators).
One would think that a new product like PPM that suggested over a half a million quarter-hour persons simply vanished from a single market would attract some attention, but this is the state of radio today.
Losses of this magnitude make radio less competitive because it effectively raises the cost of radio time. The losses are particularly painful because the greatest losses are in radio’s most lucrative day-part, morning drive.
The chart illustrates the problem. This is the percentage change in quarter-hour persons in one market, comparing the last diary book to the latest PPM month. Estimates for every single hour between 6 a.m. and 11 p.m. show declines. Of greatest financial concern are the loses in morning drive. The market lost 37% of its quarter-hour persons in the 6 a.m. and 7 a.m hours. The 8 a.m. hour lost 30%.
Think of the impact of these declines to cost per point. Think of the impact.
Arbitron argues that the diary over-estimated listening. They claim that people inflated their listening as they filled out their dairies. But where’s the proof?
Why would a person write down too many minutes of morning listening? And given that the greatest drop was in morning drive, is Arbitron suggesting that people inflated their morning listening more than the rest of the day? For what reason?
Is there a more reasonable explanation for why PPM morning drive estimates are dramatically lower than diary estimates? Yes, the meter. Each morning, the PPM has to be undocked. Unless the meter is undocked, the panelist doesn’t get credit. And panelists love credits. Then the meter has to follow the panelist (presumably attached to her robe) as she begins his day.
Think about your morning routine. Most people spend about an hour preparing for work or school, moving from bedroom, to bathroom, to kitchen, and so on. If the panelist is wearing the meter throughout her morning routine, then everything is fine. The meter will register any listening. But could you carry a meter with you as you get ready for work?
What is the chance that the PPM misses listening that the diary caught? Very high. The diary probably caught the clock radio, the radio in the bathroom, the radio in the kitchen, and probably the first station in the car. If the PPM sat on the bed stand as the panelist rushed to get ready, it probably caught the clock radio, and didn’t catch another station until she got into the car (provided she didn’t leave it on the bed stand or throw it in her purse).
We can’t say how panelists handle the meter while getting ready for work, but common sense suggests that it is the time of day that is most likely to be missed by the meter. The chaos that is a typical household’s morning, is not a time when the meter is top of mind for anyone. British broadcasters cited this very issue in their rejection of PPM. They were concerned that PPM would under-estimate breakfast (morning) listening.
Here are our questions:
If the declines in listening are because PPM is more accurate, why do the declines disproportionately show up in morning drive? Is it reasonable to expect an average household member to carry the meter throughout their morning routine? What validation studies have been done since British broadcasters raised their concern to prove that PPM captures all morning radio listening?
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